NFL Preseason 2014 pointspread picks for free
Hey Guys, been a while but KC is back for 2014 NFL and College football as well as some MLB and MLB playoffs.
So lets get things rolling with some NFL preseason action. We dont go heavy on these but preseason many times is a way to build your bankroll coming into the regular NFL Season.
Some preseason information here taken from InsiderAngles.com~~
NFL Pre-Season Week 1 Trends & Angles
The 2014 NFL Preseason began with an upset and an ‘under’ as the New York Giants defeated the Buffalo Bills 17-13 as three-point underdogs with the game staying below the closing posted total of 36½. As you will see later on, those results are right in line with historical results for both Hall of Fame week and Week 1 of preseason, and thus could serve as a precursor to another nice preseason for us!
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That result was a perfect example of why bettors who refuse to bet on preseason preferring instead to wait until the regular year starts are missing out on a potential gold mine. After all, only in preseason do coaches often divulge their game plans and player rotations prior to kick-off and then more or less stick to their plans, and that is not to mention the many successful preseason trends that continue to produce a profit year in and year out.
While we concede that we are definitely in the minority, we have always felt that NFL preseason is easier to beat than the NFL regular season. Remember that NFL regular season lines are the tightest lines of any North American sport out of necessity, simply because the NFL is the most heavily bet sport, meaning that the lines need to be sharp for the sportsbooks not to take major hits.
On the other hand, we had seen many soft spots over the years in the preseason that looked obvious with just a little bit of research. Also keep in mind that each preseason week has had its own characteristics, so we will have various approaches as we look at each week individually the next four weeks.
Also, another common theme across the entire preseason is that there are coaches that simply want to win these games, and the motivation of wanting to win is perhaps the single biggest factor in exhibition games. Conversely, there are also coaches that have especially bad records during preseason, mostly because they could not care less about winning these games and often play “vanilla” on both sides of the ball.
With this in mind, we have two coaches that we intend to follow the entire preseason, as well as one coach that we intend to fade. Not included on this list is the new coach of the Detroit Lions Jim Caldwell, who went a dismal 2-10 in his preseason tenure with the Indianapolis Colts.
We are omitting him because he is moving from a Colts’ organization that has never cared much about preseason regardless of the coach to a Detroit Lions’ organization that did well in preseason under former coach Jim Schwartz. That change in preseason philosophy plus Caldwell possibly wanting to do well in his first preseason with a new team have us holding off on him for now.
Coaches To Follow
Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers): Yes, we get that the Steelers went 0-4 during preseason last year after going 19-6 over Tomlin’s first six years, but that may only motivate the intense coach to try and win more games this preseason, especially given what a bad year the Steelers had last year after not having their typically good tune-ups to instill a winning culture from the get-go. Besides, Tomlin’s now 19-10 preseason record still means he has won nearly two-thirds of these contests.
Pete Carroll (Seattle Seahawks): Speaking of building a winning culture during preseason leading to success during the year, Carroll’s Seahawks had their second consecutive 4-0 preseason last year and went on to win the first Super Bowl in franchise history! That makes nine straight preseason wins for Seattle going back to 2011, and they are 11-5 overall since Carroll took over as head coach, giving him the highest preseason winning percentage among coaches with at least 12 games entering this preseason.
Coach To Fade
Mike Smith (Atlanta Falcons): Mike Smith has now coached the Falcons for six years, and not only does he have a dismal 7-17 preseason record overall but he has yet to have a winning preseason. Furthermore his Falcons are 1-11 the last three preseasons with two 0-4 seasons including last year.
And now let us move on to some week-specific winning Trends & Angles exclusively for preseason Week 1, with all ATS records being over the last 14 preseasons since 2000. Note that each angle has been updated for a win in the Hall of Fame Game this past Sunday.
Preseason Week 1 General Trends
Play on all underdogs in Week 1 plus Hall of Fame Week (129-101-11, 56.1% ATS): The win by the Giants Sunday nudged this ATS percentage over 56 percent, and the angle continued strong last season going 11-6 ATS as the underdog won the 2013 Hall of Fame game and the dogs then went 10-6 ATS in preseason Week 1. The reason this has worked so well is because Week 1 is the week when the most players get to shuffle in and out of the lineups, with starters hardly playing and many backups getting evaluated. Thus, these games are more like crapshoots so it only makes sense that the underdogs should hold most of the value. Furthermore, while this angle encompasses all dogs, Week 1 or Hall of Fame underdogs of +3½ or more are 36-26, 58.1 percent ATS. The Giants just missed qualifying there, but keep a close watch on the lines for the coming week as these lines are much more volatile than regular season numbers.
Play the ‘under’ in Week 1 or Hall of Fame games with posted totals of 36 or more (50-30-1, 62.5%): This also ended up cashing in the Hall of Fame Game after the total drifted all the way up to 36½ after opening at 32½, more evidence of the volatility of preseason lines. Remember that all of our records are based on the closing lines from Pinnacle Sports. As for the reasoning, because of the sloppiness that can be expected in Week 1 with so many players seeing action, the average combined total score in Week 1 and Hall of Fame games combined since 2000 is 35.3 points, easily the lowest of any preseason week. That average has made the posted total of 35½ the perfect divider when judging totals, as it is the ‘over’ that is 87-73-2, 54.5 percent in games with posted totals of 35½ or less.
Preseason Week 1 Coaches
Starting with the three coaches we are following the entire preseason, Tomlin is just 4-4 in Week 1, but Carroll is a perfect 4-0 while Smith is 1-5, both in keeping with their overall profiles.
Other notable Week 1 coaching marks:
Bill Belichick (New England Patriots, 11-4): Belichick and his Patriots won their preseason opener again last season and he is a lucrative is 10-3-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2000.
Jim Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens, 5-1): Now only did the Ravens improve to 5-1 in preseason Week 1 under Harbaugh last season, but they absolutely obliterated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44-16.
Rex Ryan (New York Jets, 0-5): Not only is Sexy Rexy still winless in preseason Week 1 in his head coaching career, but he is also 0-5 ATS as his intricate defensive schemes are obviously much simpler at the outset than they will become during the regular season. ~~ from insider angles.
Ok so with that information in mind among other things here are today’s FREE NFL preseason picks tonight
NFL San Diego Chargers +4
NFL Redskins/Patriots UNDER 39
Good luck, back tomorrow with more . . .